INTERNATIONAL,JS- Crypto Market Braces for $10.8 Billion
The cryptocurrency market is preparing for a major Bitcoin options expiry this Friday, with a total notional value of $10.8 billion. This event could significantly influence BTC’s short-term price direction.
Bears Hold the Upper Hand Ahead of Expiry
Data from the options market shows that bearish positions currently dominate. Bulls would need to push Bitcoin above $90,000 before expiry to shift the balance. Over the past two months, Bitcoin repeatedly bounced around $87,000, but resistance above $95,000 remains a tough barrier. At the time of writing, BTC trades around $89,092.
Open interest indicates that call options attract more attention. Total calls reach $6.6 billion, approximately 57% higher than put options, which total $4.2 billion. However, this dominance does not automatically translate into bullish control.
Derivatives Market Share
Deribit leads the derivatives market with a 78.7% share, followed by OKX at 6.3% and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 5%.
Less than 17% of call options expiring on January 30 at Deribit sit below $92,500. Since Bitcoin’s recent low hovered around $84,000, call options at $70,000 or lower mostly support complex on-chain strategies rather than pure price bets. For example, a $70,000 BTC call option expiring on February 27 trades at 0.212 BTC, while a $80,000 call costs only 0.109 BTC.
High costs make deep out-of-the-money options less attractive to retail traders. Conversely, calls above $110,000 receive little attention due to extremely low premiums, trading below 0.002 BTC (roughly $180).
Covered Calls and Income Strategies
Many call options above $100,000 belong to covered call strategies. Sellers collect upfront premiums while retaining Bitcoin holdings. This approach focuses on steady income rather than outright bullish bets, as potential gains remain capped.
On Deribit, call options in the $75,000–$92,000 range total around $850 million. By comparison, put options between $86,000–$100,000 reach $1.2 billion, showing a stronger bearish stance. Assuming puts above $102,000 gain little from price declines, bears maintain an edge ahead of the January expiry.
Three Key Scenarios
Based on current levels, traders face three main scenarios for Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit:
- $86,000–$88,000: Puts hold a $775 million advantage
- $88,001–$90,000: Puts lead by $325 million
- $90,001–$92,000: Calls gain a $220 million edge
As long as Bitcoin stays below $90,000, bearish strategies retain the upper hand. Ultimately, the post-expiry market will depend on whether bulls can break this critical psychological level.(TIM)
Sumber Berita: Kontan.co.id
